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August 17, 2006
Alternative Energy Revolution Fueled by New Fund Launches Despite Sector Downturn
by Bill Baue
The launch of the Guinness Atkinson Alternative Energy Fund testifies to optimism about the
sub-sector echoed by the launch of the first renewable energy hedge fund by Ardsley Partners.
SocialFunds.com --
Even as alternative energy stocks are on a three-month downward slide, alternative energy investing
continues to gain momentum with the launch of new funds, such as the Guinness Atkinson Alternative
Energy Fund (ticker: GAAEX) that
debuted on March 31. Ironically, the fund's benchmark--the WilderHill Clean Energy Index (ECO)--had
been on fire since its August 16, 2004 inception at $126.59 until May 8, when it had doubled to
$254.40. Since then ECO has been on downward slide to bottom out at $176.17 this Monday--and the
Guinness Atkinson fund is down 10.80 percent from inception through July 31. However, the index
has been creeping back and closed at $188.44 yesterday.
 Interestingly, portfolio manager Tim Guinness has been
running funds in the energy space since 1998 and therefore kept a left eye on alternative energy
stocks, but tended not to invest in the emerging sub-sector as there was much better value
available in conventional energy companies.
"We missed the 80 percent bounce in
alternative energy from depressed levels in 2003 and 2004 but didn't worry overmuch as our
conventional energy stocks were up 85 percent over the same period," Mr. Guinness told
SocialFunds.com.
Size was also a constraint--its main energy funds maintain a $1 billion
market capitalization threshold.
"This excluded most of the companies in the alternative
energy space, and yet we could see that there was significant potential in many of these smaller
stocks," says Mr. Guinness. "With oil at more than $50 a barrel and dwindling fossil fuel
resources, we know that there will have to be a shift towards alternative energy sources."
"The prospects of many alternative energy companies are transformed if oil settles at $85 a
barrel and we have begun to see that as an increasingly likely scenario," he adds. "We decided
therefore that we should offer a fund that could practically invest in alternative energy stocks
and enable our investors to have a way to potentially benefit from the improved economics of and
structural shift towards these companies that will result if this happens."
Guinness
Atkinson has lowered its market cap threshold to $50 million for companies in its alternative
energy fund. It also takes a pure play approach to screening its universe.
"Stocks must
have more than 50 percent of their revenue from businesses that are related to alternative energy
sources," says Mr. Guinness. "We note that other funds in the space also have investments in
several larger companies where a much smaller percentage of revenues is derived from alternative
energy."
"The effect of this is to reduce the downside risk, but also to cap the potential
upside," he points out.
Guinness Atkinson reduces risk by diversifying it across a
portfolio of 40 to 60 US and international holdings. This international exposure differentiates it
from its benchmark, as ECO is comprised of US companies. The top five holdings of the fund are
Germany-based wind turbine producer Nordex (NRDXF.PK), Australian Ethanol (ASTUF.PK), and
UK-based Clipper Windpower (CWP.L), ethanol producer Renova
Energy (RVA.L),
and fuel cell company Ceres Power Holdings (CWR.L).
Interestingly,
US-based Evergreen Solar (ESLR) fell off the top ten holdings
list (from position four as of June 30), as the company's share price has nearly halved from $16.00
on April 19 to a low of $8.22 this Monday. This timing may not be a coincidence.
"The
recent downturn in alternative energy stocks is related to a number of factors--principally, the Nasdaq Index has fallen by 12 percent since April
19," Mr. Guinness says. "The sector is still in its infancy, so a number of the companies are
technology companies with products at early stages in the lifecycle, and so they have been
negatively impacted by the market move.
"Prior to the correction, as oil moved above $70
there was a marked increase in general enthusiasm for investing in the sector and valuations moved
up to high levels with the stocks as money flowed in, but we now feel that much of this hype has
been deflated," he continues. "To address this, we maintained a cash balance as the market
declined, and have increased our holdings in stocks that we believe have seen an overreaction--we
think that this downtown is providing us with a number of opportunities to get into stocks at
attractive valuations."
The downturn has not overly dampened the enthusiasm for other
forms of alternative energy investing as well. For example, the Ardsley Partners Renewable Energy
Fund launched in early July as one of the first hedge fund focusing exclusively on alternative
energy companies (both public and private). As with Guinness Atkinson, Ardsley Partners is not dipping its toes into the sub-sector for
the very first time--it has been incrementally building a renewable energy position in its flagship
fund for the past two years to the point that it now represents 15 to 17 percent of that fund.
While Ardsley is now one of the larger public equity players in alternative energy, the space
is driven even more aggressively by private equity. More than $360 million of private equity and
venture capital has filtered into clean energy companies this summer alone, according to statistics
from VCDeal.com. Just
yesterday, for example, biodiesel company Renewable Energy Group announced a $100 million deal.
"The alternative energy revolution has only just begun," states Mr. Guinness in the March
2006 special report on the sector.
©
SRI World Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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